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Complutense vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Complutense
Complutense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Complutense46%
×Draw26%
San Fernando Henares28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Complutense
1.50
San Fernando Henares
1.11

Complutense creates 35% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 29 away

creates per match

Complutense
1.17
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Complutense
1.08
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Complutense+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Complutense ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Complutense or draw
72%
Complutense or San Fernando Henares
74%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
54%

Winning margin

Complutense wins by 2+
23%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Complutense 1+ goals
78%
Complutense 2+ goals
44%
Complutense 3+ goals
19%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
67%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
30%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Complutense (draw refunded)
62%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Complutense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Complutense attack 1.17 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Complutense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Complutense scores more
46%
level
26%
San Fernando Henares scores more
28%

Complutense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Complutense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Complutense 1–0 San Fernando Henares

Complutense beat San Fernando Henares 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial in Alcalá de Henares.