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Complutense vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Complutense
Complutense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
9/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Complutense37%
×Draw28%
RSD Alcalá35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Complutense
1.19
RSD Alcalá
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 99 away

creates per match

Complutense
1.17
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Complutense
1.08
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Complutense+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Complutense ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Complutense or draw
65%
Complutense or RSD Alcalá
72%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
63%

Winning margin

Complutense wins by 2+
16%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Complutense 1+ goals
70%
Complutense 2+ goals
33%
Complutense 3+ goals
12%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
69%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
32%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Complutense (draw refunded)
51%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Complutense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Complutense attack 1.17 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Complutense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Complutense scores more
37%
level
28%
RSD Alcalá scores more
35%

Complutense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Complutense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Complutense 2–1 RSD Alcalá

Complutense beat RSD Alcalá 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial in Alcalá de Henares.