Complutense 2–1 Real Aranjuez: Result & Stats

Complutense

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Aranjuez

4/18/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 3Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Complutense56%

×Draw24%

Real Aranjuez21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComplutenseExpected goals in this matchReal Aranjuez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.95

Complutense

1.73

Real Aranjuez

0.95

Complutense creates 82% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 31 away

1.17

creates per match

0.81

1.08

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Complutense

1.17

Real Aranjuez

0.81

allows per match

Complutense

1.08

Real Aranjuez

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Complutense+0.00on par

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Complutense ↓

Real Aranjuez →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Complutense or draw

79%

Complutense or Real Aranjuez

76%

Draw or Real Aranjuez

44%

Winning margin

Complutense wins by 2+

31%

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+

Team goals

Complutense 1+ goals

82%

Complutense 2+ goals

52%

Complutense 3+ goals

25%

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals

61%

Real Aranjuez 2+ goals

25%

Real Aranjuez 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Complutense (draw refunded)

73%

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Complutense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Complutense attack 1.17 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.73

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + Complutense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Complutense scores more

56%

level

24%

Real Aranjuez scores more

21%

Complutense at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Complutense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff