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Complutense vs Atlético Pinto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Complutense
Complutense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
6/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 12Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Complutense45%
×Draw26%
Atlético Pinto29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Complutense
1.43
Atlético Pinto
1.09

Complutense creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 29 away

creates per match

Complutense
1.17
Atlético Pinto
1.10

allows per match

Complutense
1.08
Atlético Pinto
1.69

finishing

Complutense+0.00on par
Atlético Pinto+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Complutense ↓

Atlético Pinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Complutense or draw
71%
Complutense or Atlético Pinto
74%
Draw or Atlético Pinto
55%

Winning margin

Complutense wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Complutense 1+ goals
76%
Complutense 2+ goals
42%
Complutense 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Complutense (draw refunded)
61%
Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Complutense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Atlético Pinto away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Complutense attack 1.17 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.43

Atlético Pinto attack 1.10 + Complutense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Complutense scores more
45%
level
26%
Atlético Pinto scores more
29%

Complutense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Complutense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Complutense 0–0 Atlético Pinto

Complutense and Atlético Pinto drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial in Alcalá de Henares.