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Complutense vs Atlético Madrid II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Complutense
Complutense
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
10/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Complutense25%
×Draw28%
Atlético Madrid II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Complutense
0.89
Atlético Madrid II
1.34

Atlético Madrid II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

creates per match

Complutense
1.17
Atlético Madrid II
1.60

allows per match

Complutense
1.08
Atlético Madrid II
0.60

finishing

Complutense+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Complutense ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Complutense or draw
53%
Complutense or Atlético Madrid II
72%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
75%

Winning margin

Complutense wins by 2+
8%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Complutense 1+ goals
59%
Complutense 2+ goals
22%
Complutense 3+ goals
6%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
39%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Complutense (draw refunded)
35%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Complutense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Complutense attack 1.17 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Complutense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Complutense scores more
25%
level
28%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
47%

Atlético Madrid II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Complutense 0–4 Atlético Madrid II

Atlético Madrid II beat Complutense 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial in Alcalá de Henares.