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Compel vs Mara Sugar — Shield Cup 2022

Compel
Compeladvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
3/31/2024Shield CupShield Cup · Round of 16Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Compel48%
×Draw30%
Mara Sugar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Compel
1.25
Mara Sugar
0.75

Compel creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Compel
1.50
Mara Sugar
0.75

allows per match

Compel
0.75
Mara Sugar
1.00

finishing

Compel+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compel ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Compel or draw
78%
Compel or Mara Sugar
70%
Draw or Mara Sugar
52%

Winning margin

Compel wins by 2+
22%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Compel 1+ goals
71%
Compel 2+ goals
36%
Compel 3+ goals
13%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
53%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
17%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Compel (draw refunded)
68%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compel at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compel attack 1.50 + Mara Sugar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mara Sugar attack 0.75 + Compel defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Compel scores more
48%
level
30%
Mara Sugar scores more
22%

Compel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Compel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shield Cup: Compel 2–0 Mara Sugar

Compel beat Mara Sugar 2-0 in Shield Cup on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium in Kisumu.