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Como vs Sudtirol — Serie B 2018

Como
Como
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sudtirol
Sudtirol
4/1/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 31Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Como43%
×Draw27%
Sudtirol30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Como
1.34
Sudtirol
1.06

Como creates 26% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 78 away

creates per match

Como
1.40
Sudtirol
1.08

allows per match

Como
1.05
Sudtirol
1.29

finishing

Como+0.00on par
Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Como ↓

Sudtirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Como or draw
70%
Como or Sudtirol
73%
Draw or Sudtirol
57%

Winning margin

Como wins by 2+
20%
Sudtirol wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Como 1+ goals
74%
Como 2+ goals
39%
Como 3+ goals
15%
Sudtirol 1+ goals
65%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
29%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Como (draw refunded)
59%
Sudtirol (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Como at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Como attack 1.40 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Como defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Como scores more
43%
level
27%
Sudtirol scores more
30%

Como at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Como will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Como vs Sudtirol

Como beat Sudtirol 2-0 in Serie B on April 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Como.