Como 1–0 Sampdoria: Result & Stats | Serie B

Como

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sampdoria

9/27/2023

Serie B · Round 7Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Como46%

×Draw26%

Sampdoria28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComoExpected goals in this matchSampdoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.09

Como

1.46

Sampdoria

1.09

Como creates 34% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 58 away

1.40

creates per match

1.14

1.05

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Como

1.40

Sampdoria

1.14

allows per match

Como

1.05

Sampdoria

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Como+0.00on par

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Como ↓

Sampdoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Como or draw

72%

Como or Sampdoria

74%

Draw or Sampdoria

54%

Winning margin

Como wins by 2+

22%

Sampdoria wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Como 1+ goals

77%

Como 2+ goals

43%

Como 3+ goals

18%

Sampdoria 1+ goals

66%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

30%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Como (draw refunded)

62%

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Como at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Como attack 1.40 + Sampdoria defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sampdoria attack 1.14 + Como defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Como scores more

46%

level

26%

Sampdoria scores more

28%

Como at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Como will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff