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Como vs Juventus — Serie A 2018

Como
Como
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Juventus
Juventus
Assane Diao 45+1'
R. Kolo Muani 89' (pen), 34'
2/7/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 24Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Como43%
×Draw26%
Juventus31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Como
1.42
Juventus
1.17

Como creates 21% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 32 away

creates per match

Como
1.85
Juventus
1.48

allows per match

Como
0.86
Juventus
0.99

finishing

Como-0.07on par
Juventus-0.07on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Como ↓

Juventus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Como or draw
69%
Como or Juventus
74%
Draw or Juventus
57%

Winning margin

Como wins by 2+
20%
Juventus wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Como 1+ goals
76%
Como 2+ goals
41%
Como 3+ goals
17%
Juventus 1+ goals
69%
Juventus 2+ goals
33%
Juventus 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Como (draw refunded)
58%
Juventus (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Como at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.86 · 23 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Como attack 1.85 + Juventus defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.42

Juventus attack 1.48 + Como defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Como scores more
43%
level
26%
Juventus scores more
31%

Como at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Como will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
R. Kolo MuaniJuventusJuventus · F
8.2

Match Events

28'
Nicolò Savona
34'
R. Kolo Muani↳ N. González
37'
Álex Valle
45+1'
Assane Diao↳ P. Cutrone
46'
L. Kelly← N. Savona
61'
K. Thuram← M. Locatelli
61'
Douglas Luiz← T. Koopmeiners
64'
J. Ikoné← P. Cutrone
67'
S. Mbangula← K. Yıldız
73'
T. Douvikas← Assane Diao
73'
I. Van der Brempt← Álex Valle
75'
Gabriel Strefezza
76'
Francisco Conceição← N. González
79'
Fellipe Jack← I. Van der Brempt
79'
Y. Engelhardt← L. da Cunha
86'
Edoardo Goldaniga
89'
R. Kolo MuaniPenalty

Possession

52%Como

Shots

16Como

Pass accuracy

51%Como

Statistics

ComoJuventus
Overview
52%Possession48%
16Total Shots8
0.95Expected Goals (xG)1.14
9Corners1
15Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots8
6On Target3
5Off Target3
5Blocked2
12Inside Box7
4Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
409Total Passes386
342Accurate Passes317
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
0.80Goals Prevented0.80
Discipline
15Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Como 1 – 2 Juventus

Juventus beat Como 2-1 in Serie A on February 7, 2025.

Goals: R. Kolo Muani (34', 89' pen), Assane Diao (45+1').

Como controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Como.