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como vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

como
como
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Brescia
Brescia
2/26/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 26Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

como42%
×Draw27%
Brescia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

como
1.34
Brescia
1.11

como creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 116 away

creates per match

como
1.40
Brescia
1.18

allows per match

como
1.05
Brescia
1.28

finishing

como+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

como ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

como or draw
69%
como or Brescia
73%
Draw or Brescia
58%

Winning margin

como wins by 2+
19%
Brescia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

como 1+ goals
74%
como 2+ goals
39%
como 3+ goals
15%
Brescia 1+ goals
67%
Brescia 2+ goals
30%
Brescia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

como (draw refunded)
58%
Brescia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

como at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.28 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

como attack 1.40 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Brescia attack 1.18 + como defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

como scores more
42%
level
27%
Brescia scores more
31%

como at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "como will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: como 1–1 Brescia

como and Brescia drew 1-1 in Serie B on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Como.