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Como U19 vs Pescara U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Como U19
Como U19advanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Pescara U19
Pescara U19
5/17/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Promotion Play-offs - Quarter-finalsCampo Sportivo Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Como U1941%
×Draw22%
Pescara U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Como U19
1.84
Pescara U19
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 72 away

creates per match

Como U19
1.97
Pescara U19
1.75

allows per match

Como U19
1.70
Pescara U19
1.71

finishing

Como U19+0.00on par
Pescara U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Como U19 ↓

Pescara U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Como U19 or draw
63%
Como U19 or Pescara U19
78%
Draw or Pescara U19
59%

Winning margin

Como U19 wins by 2+
22%
Pescara U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Como U19 1+ goals
84%
Como U19 2+ goals
55%
Como U19 3+ goals
28%
Pescara U19 1+ goals
82%
Pescara U19 2+ goals
52%
Pescara U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Como U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Pescara U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Como U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.70 · 74 matches

Pescara U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Como U19 attack 1.97 + Pescara U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.84

Pescara U19 attack 1.75 + Como U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Como U19 scores more
41%
level
22%
Pescara U19 scores more
37%

Como U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Como U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Como U19 5–1 Pescara U19

Como U19 beat Pescara U19 5-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale in Caronno Pertusella.