Como U19 3–1 Padova U19: Result & Stats

Como U19

FT

3 – 1

Padova U19

5/13/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 30Campo Sportivo Lambrone

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Como U1949%

×Draw23%

Padova U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Como U19Expected goals in this matchPadova U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.34

Como U19

1.85

Padova U19

1.34

Como U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 61 away

1.97

creates per match

0.98

1.70

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Como U19

1.97

Padova U19

0.98

allows per match

Como U19

1.70

Padova U19

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Como U19+0.00on par

Padova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Como U19 ↓

Padova U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Como U19 or draw

72%

Como U19 or Padova U19

77%

Draw or Padova U19

51%

Winning margin

Como U19 wins by 2+

27%

Padova U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Como U19 1+ goals

84%

Como U19 2+ goals

55%

Como U19 3+ goals

28%

Padova U19 1+ goals

74%

Padova U19 2+ goals

39%

Padova U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Como U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Padova U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Como U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.70 · 74 matches

Padova U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Como U19 attack 1.97 + Padova U19 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.85

Padova U19 attack 0.98 + Como U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Como U19 scores more

49%

level

23%

Padova U19 scores more

28%

Como U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Como U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff