Como U19 1–4 Genoa U19: Result & Stats

Como U19

FT

1 – 4

Genoa U19

4/1/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 24Campo Sportivo Lambrone

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Como U1924%

×Draw20%

Genoa U1955%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Como U19Expected goals in this matchGenoa U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.25

Como U19

1.45

Genoa U19

2.25

Genoa U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 15 away

1.97

creates per match

2.80

1.70

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Como U19

1.97

Genoa U19

2.80

allows per match

Como U19

1.70

Genoa U19

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Como U19+0.00on par

Genoa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Como U19 ↓

Genoa U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Como U19 or draw

45%

Como U19 or Genoa U19

80%

Draw or Genoa U19

76%

Winning margin

Como U19 wins by 2+

11%

Genoa U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Como U19 1+ goals

77%

Como U19 2+ goals

42%

Como U19 3+ goals

18%

Genoa U19 1+ goals

89%

Genoa U19 2+ goals

65%

Genoa U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Como U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Genoa U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Como U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.70 · 74 matches

Genoa U19 away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Como U19 attack 1.97 + Genoa U19 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.45

Genoa U19 attack 2.80 + Como U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Como U19 scores more

24%

level

20%

Genoa U19 scores more

55%

Genoa U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Genoa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff