Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Comillas vs Villegas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Comillas
Comillas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Villegas
Villegas
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 27Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Comillas60%
×Draw21%
Villegas19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comillas
2.06
Villegas
1.05

Comillas creates 96% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 46 away

creates per match

Comillas
1.09
Villegas
0.57

allows per match

Comillas
1.53
Villegas
3.04

finishing

Comillas+0.00on par
Villegas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comillas ↓

Villegas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Comillas or draw
81%
Comillas or Villegas
79%
Draw or Villegas
40%

Winning margin

Comillas wins by 2+
37%
Villegas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Comillas 1+ goals
87%
Comillas 2+ goals
61%
Comillas 3+ goals
34%
Villegas 1+ goals
65%
Villegas 2+ goals
28%
Villegas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Comillas (draw refunded)
76%
Villegas (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comillas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

Villegas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.04 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comillas attack 1.09 + Villegas defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.06

Villegas attack 0.57 + Comillas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Comillas scores more
60%
level
21%
Villegas scores more
19%

Comillas at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Comillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comillas vs Villegas

Comillas beat Villegas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.