Comillas 0–2 UD Logroñés II: Result & Stats

Comillas

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

UD Logroñés II

Mustapha Zarouali 89'

Iván Estrecha 67'

5/11/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 34Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Comillas24%

×Draw26%

UD Logroñés II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComillasExpected goals in this matchUD Logroñés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.54

Comillas

0.99

UD Logroñés II

1.54

UD Logroñés II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 77 away

1.09

creates per match

1.55

1.53

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Comillas

1.09

UD Logroñés II

1.55

allows per match

Comillas

1.53

UD Logroñés II

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comillas+0.00on par

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comillas ↓

UD Logroñés II →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Comillas or draw

50%

Comillas or UD Logroñés II

74%

Draw or UD Logroñés II

76%

Winning margin

Comillas wins by 2+

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Comillas 1+ goals

63%

Comillas 2+ goals

26%

Comillas 3+ goals

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals

79%

UD Logroñés II 2+ goals

45%

UD Logroñés II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Comillas (draw refunded)

33%

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Comillas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

UD Logroñés II away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Comillas attack 1.09 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.99

UD Logroñés II attack 1.55 + Comillas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Comillas scores more

24%

level

26%

UD Logroñés II scores more

50%

UD Logroñés II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

Rodrigo Esteban← Alejandro Martinez

61'

Álvaro Pascual← Rafael Cristóbal

61'

Daniel García← Michael Ngaah

61'

Mario Salazar← Marc Fernández

63'

K. Achodo← Diego Zangroniz

63'

Marco Ibarra← Germán Arnáez

63'

Ismael Terriza← Daniel Llorente

67'

Iván Estrecha

68'

M. Ola← Iván Estrecha

81'

S. Stamatakis Vailakakis← Adrián Castillo

81'

Pablo Fernández← Gaizka Asensio

89'

Comillas

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Gustavo

63'▲K. Achodo←▼Diego Zangroniz

63'▲Marco Ibarra←▼Germán Arnáez

63'▲Ismael Terriza←▼Daniel Llorente

81'▲S. Stamatakis Vailakakis←▼Adrián Castillo

81'▲Pablo Fernández←▼Gaizka Asensio

Comillas substitutes

AchodoIbarraTerrizaVailakakisFernández

Manager: Eladio Urzay

61'▲Rodrigo Esteban←▼Alejandro Martinez

61'▲Álvaro Pascual←▼Rafael Cristóbal

61'▲Daniel García←▼Michael Ngaah

61'▲Mario Salazar←▼Marc Fernández

68'▲M. Ola←▼Iván Estrecha

UD Logroñés II substitutes

EstebanPascualGarcíaSalazarOla

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Comillas 0–2 UD Logroñés II

UD Logroñés II beat Comillas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 11, 2025.

Goals: Iván Estrecha (67'), Mustapha Zarouali (89').

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.

Comillas vs UD Logroñés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Comillas 0–2 UD Logroñés II