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Comillas vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Comillas
Comillas
CANC
00:00
River Ebro
River Ebro
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 34Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Comillas42%
×Draw25%
River Ebro33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comillas
1.50
River Ebro
1.31

Comillas creates 15% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 93 away

creates per match

Comillas
1.09
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Comillas
1.53
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Comillas+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comillas ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Comillas or draw
67%
Comillas or River Ebro
75%
Draw or River Ebro
58%

Winning margin

Comillas wins by 2+
20%
River Ebro wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Comillas 1+ goals
78%
Comillas 2+ goals
44%
Comillas 3+ goals
19%
River Ebro 1+ goals
73%
River Ebro 2+ goals
38%
River Ebro 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Comillas (draw refunded)
56%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comillas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comillas attack 1.09 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.50

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Comillas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Comillas scores more
42%
level
25%
River Ebro scores more
33%

Comillas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Comillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Comillas host River Ebro

April 19, 2020: Comillas take on River Ebro in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Comillas host River Ebro at Estadio Mundial 82.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.