Comillas 3–2 Pradejón: Result & Stats

Comillas

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Pradejón

2/8/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 21Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Comillas41%

×Draw25%

Pradejón34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComillasExpected goals in this matchPradejón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.35

Comillas

1.50

Pradejón

1.35

Comillas creates 11% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 46 away

1.09

creates per match

1.17

1.53

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Comillas

1.09

Pradejón

1.17

allows per match

Comillas

1.53

Pradejón

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comillas+0.00on par

Pradejón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comillas ↓

Pradejón →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Comillas or draw

66%

Comillas or Pradejón

75%

Draw or Pradejón

59%

Winning margin

Comillas wins by 2+

20%

Pradejón wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Comillas 1+ goals

78%

Comillas 2+ goals

44%

Comillas 3+ goals

19%

Pradejón 1+ goals

74%

Pradejón 2+ goals

39%

Pradejón 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Comillas (draw refunded)

54%

Pradejón (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Comillas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

Pradejón away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.91 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Comillas attack 1.09 + Pradejón defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pradejón attack 1.17 + Comillas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Comillas scores more

41%

level

25%

Pradejón scores more

34%

Comillas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Comillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff