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Comillas vs Alfaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Comillas
Comillas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Alfaro
Alfaro
4/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 29Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Comillas25%
×Draw24%
Alfaro50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comillas
1.11
Alfaro
1.67

Alfaro creates 50% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 59 away

creates per match

Comillas
1.09
Alfaro
1.80

allows per match

Comillas
1.53
Alfaro
1.14

finishing

Comillas+0.00on par
Alfaro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comillas ↓

Alfaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Comillas or draw
50%
Comillas or Alfaro
76%
Draw or Alfaro
75%

Winning margin

Comillas wins by 2+
10%
Alfaro wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Comillas 1+ goals
67%
Comillas 2+ goals
30%
Comillas 3+ goals
10%
Alfaro 1+ goals
81%
Alfaro 2+ goals
50%
Alfaro 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Comillas (draw refunded)
33%
Alfaro (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comillas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

Alfaro away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comillas attack 1.09 + Alfaro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Alfaro attack 1.80 + Comillas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Comillas scores more
25%
level
24%
Alfaro scores more
50%

Alfaro at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comillas vs Alfaro

Alfaro beat Comillas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.