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Comércio Indústria vs Salgueiros — Taça de Portugal 2018

Comércio Indústria
Comércio Indústriaadvanced
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Salgueiros
Salgueiros
9/21/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 128Campo Bela Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Comércio Indústria67%
×Draw16%
Salgueiros17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comércio Indústria
2.94
Salgueiros
1.44

Comércio Indústria creates 104% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Comércio Indústria
2.67
Salgueiros
2.20

allows per match

Comércio Indústria
0.67
Salgueiros
3.20

finishing

Comércio Indústria+0.00on par
Salgueiros+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comércio Indústria ↓

Salgueiros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Comércio Indústria or draw
83%
Comércio Indústria or Salgueiros
84%
Draw or Salgueiros
33%

Winning margin

Comércio Indústria wins by 2+
47%
Salgueiros wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Comércio Indústria 1+ goals
95%
Comércio Indústria 2+ goals
79%
Comércio Indústria 3+ goals
55%
Salgueiros 1+ goals
76%
Salgueiros 2+ goals
42%
Salgueiros 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Comércio Indústria (draw refunded)
80%
Salgueiros (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comércio Indústria at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Salgueiros away — creates 2.20, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comércio Indústria attack 2.67 + Salgueiros defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.94

Salgueiros attack 2.20 + Comércio Indústria defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Comércio Indústria scores more
67%
level
16%
Salgueiros scores more
17%

Comércio Indústria at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Comércio Indústria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Comércio Indústria 4–2 Salgueiros

Comércio Indústria beat Salgueiros 4-2 in Taça de Portugal on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Bela Vista in Setúbal.