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Comerciantes vs Deportivo Coopsol — Segunda División 2018

Comerciantes
Comerciantes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
6/4/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Max Augustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Comerciantes58%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Coopsol19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes
1.76
Deportivo Coopsol
0.90

Comerciantes creates 96% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 91 away

creates per match

Comerciantes
1.89
Deportivo Coopsol
1.18

allows per match

Comerciantes
0.61
Deportivo Coopsol
1.63

finishing

Comerciantes+0.00on par
Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Comerciantes or draw
81%
Comerciantes or Deportivo Coopsol
77%
Draw or Deportivo Coopsol
42%

Winning margin

Comerciantes wins by 2+
33%
Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Comerciantes 1+ goals
83%
Comerciantes 2+ goals
52%
Comerciantes 3+ goals
26%
Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes (draw refunded)
75%
Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.61 · 44 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes attack 1.89 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.76

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Comerciantes defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Comerciantes scores more
58%
level
23%
Deportivo Coopsol scores more
19%

Comerciantes at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Comerciantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Comerciantes 2–1 Deportivo Coopsol

Comerciantes beat Deportivo Coopsol 2-1 in Segunda División on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Max Augustín in Iquitos.