Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2026

Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
Preview
20:30
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
7/26/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra
Big match
41%
Alianza Lima
model favours
30%29%41%

92% of Comerciantes Unidos’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos30%
×Draw29%
Alianza Lima41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes Unidos
0.97
Alianza Lima
1.19

Alianza Lima creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos
0.96
Alianza Lima
1.07

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.31
Alianza Lima
0.98

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos-0.04on par
Alianza Lima-0.13scores less

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw
59%
Comerciantes Unidos or Alianza Lima
71%
Draw or Alianza Lima
70%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
11%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
62%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
25%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
7%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
70%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
33%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
42%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Alianza Lima defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Alianza Lima attack 1.07 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more
30%
level
29%
Alianza Lima scores more
41%

Alianza Lima at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Comerciantes Unidos score first in only 17% of matches
  • Alianza Lima score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 25% of Comerciantes Unidos’s matches
  • Comerciantes Unidos win just 18% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Comerciantes Unidos
Balanced
Alianza Lima
Possession-dominant
46%Possession55%
75%Pass accuracy80%
10.2Shots14.8
0.96xGBiggest gap1.64
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Comerciantes UnidosAlianza Lima

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2
Comerciantes Unidos
1
Draws
6
Alianza Lima
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 56%
1–20–40–11–31–5

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Unidos
DDLLD
Lima
WLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Comerciantes Unidos face Alianza Lima (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Comerciantes Unidos hosting Alianza Lima. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Comerciantes Unidos host Alianza Lima at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.