Comerciantes Unidos 0–1 Alianza Lima

Comerciantes Unidos

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Lima

6/19/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos33%

×Draw31%

Alianza Lima36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comerciantes UnidosExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.04

Comerciantes Unidos

0.98

Alianza Lima

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.15

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.15

Alianza Lima

1.00

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.07

Alianza Lima

0.82

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos-0.15scores less

Alianza Lima-0.33scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Alianza Lima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw

64%

Comerciantes Unidos or Alianza Lima

69%

Draw or Alianza Lima

67%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

12%

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

62%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

26%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

8%

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

65%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

28%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

48%

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.15 + Alianza Lima defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Alianza Lima attack 1.00 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

33%

level

31%

Alianza Lima scores more

36%

Alianza Lima at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff