Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 ADT: Result & Stats

Comerciantes Unidos

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ADT

10/28/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Municipal Germán Contreras Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos38%

×Draw29%

ADT33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comerciantes UnidosExpected goals in this matchADT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.06

Comerciantes Unidos

1.17

ADT

1.06

Comerciantes Unidos creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

0.92

creates per match

0.74

1.39

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos

0.92

ADT

0.74

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.39

ADT

1.42

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos-0.06on par

ADT+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

ADT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw

67%

Comerciantes Unidos or ADT

71%

Draw or ADT

62%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

16%

ADT wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

69%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

33%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

11%

ADT 1+ goals

65%

ADT 2+ goals

29%

ADT 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

54%

ADT (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.39 · 14 matches

ADT away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.92 + ADT defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.17

ADT attack 0.74 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

38%

level

29%

ADT scores more

33%

Comerciantes Unidos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

E. Caballero

Comerciantes Unidos · D

7.9

Match Events

39'

Matias Sen

46'

E. Páucar← D. Dioses

46'

J. Gonzáles← Y. Vílchez

55'

L. da Silva← J. Pósito

66'

J. Parodi← K. Paico

66'

J. Toledo← O. Pinto

68'

H. Rengifo← A. Quiñonez

79'

C. Villanueva← P. Magallanes

88'

Y. Gamero← J. Falconí

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ComerciantesADT

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots18

1Corners9

17Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots18

2On Target4

6Off Target8

3Blocked6

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box11

Passing

49%Possession51%

296Total Passes296

219Accurate Passes220

74%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1