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Comercial U20 vs Francana U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Comercial U20
Comercial U20
FT
2 – 2
Francana U20
Francana U20
5/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Dr. Francisco de Palma Travassos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Comercial U2078%
×Draw12%
Francana U2010%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comercial U20
3.40
Francana U20
1.20

Comercial U20 creates 183% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Comercial U20
3.40
Francana U20
1.20

allows per match

Comercial U20
1.20
Francana U20
3.40

finishing

Comercial U20+0.00on par
Francana U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 83Under: 1783%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comercial U20 ↓

Francana U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Comercial U20 or draw
90%
Comercial U20 or Francana U20
88%
Draw or Francana U20
22%

Winning margin

Comercial U20 wins by 2+
59%
Francana U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Comercial U20 1+ goals
96%
Comercial U20 2+ goals
84%
Comercial U20 3+ goals
64%
Francana U20 1+ goals
70%
Francana U20 2+ goals
34%
Francana U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Comercial U20 (draw refunded)
89%
Francana U20 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comercial U20 at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Francana U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comercial U20 attack 3.40 + Francana U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.40

Francana U20 attack 1.20 + Comercial U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Comercial U20 scores more
78%
level
12%
Francana U20 scores more
10%

Comercial U20 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Comercial U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Comercial U20 2–2 Francana U20

Comercial U20 and Francana U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Francisco de Palma Travassos in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo.