Comercial de Tietê U20 2–0 XV de Piracicaba U20

Comercial de Tietê U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

XV de Piracicaba U20

Unknown 65', 31'

5/30/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio José Ferreira Alves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Comercial de Tietê U2030%

×Draw23%

XV de Piracicaba U2047%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comercial de Tietê U20Expected goals in this matchXV de Piracicaba U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.75

Comercial de Tietê U20

1.34

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.75

XV de Piracicaba U20 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 20 away

1.33

creates per match

1.25

2.25

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Comercial de Tietê U20

1.33

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.25

allows per match

Comercial de Tietê U20

2.25

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comercial de Tietê U20+0.00on par

XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comercial de Tietê U20 ↓

XV de Piracicaba U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Comercial de Tietê U20 or draw

53%

Comercial de Tietê U20 or XV de Piracicaba U20

77%

Draw or XV de Piracicaba U20

70%

Winning margin

Comercial de Tietê U20 wins by 2+

13%

XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Comercial de Tietê U20 1+ goals

74%

Comercial de Tietê U20 2+ goals

39%

Comercial de Tietê U20 3+ goals

15%

XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals

83%

XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals

52%

XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Comercial de Tietê U20 (draw refunded)

39%

XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comercial de Tietê U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

XV de Piracicaba U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comercial de Tietê U20 attack 1.33 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + Comercial de Tietê U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Comercial de Tietê U20 scores more

30%

level

23%

XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more

47%

XV de Piracicaba U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "XV de Piracicaba U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

65'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff