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Comercial de Tietê U20 vs São Bento U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Comercial de Tietê U20
Comercial de Tietê U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
São Bento U20
São Bento U20
L. de Souza 47'
6/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio José Ferreira Alves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Comercial de Tietê U2038%
×Draw23%
São Bento U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comercial de Tietê U20
1.69
São Bento U20
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 21 away

creates per match

Comercial de Tietê U20
1.33
São Bento U20
1.19

allows per match

Comercial de Tietê U20
2.25
São Bento U20
2.05

finishing

Comercial de Tietê U20+0.00on par
São Bento U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comercial de Tietê U20 ↓

São Bento U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Comercial de Tietê U20 or draw
61%
Comercial de Tietê U20 or São Bento U20
77%
Draw or São Bento U20
62%

Winning margin

Comercial de Tietê U20 wins by 2+
19%
São Bento U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Comercial de Tietê U20 1+ goals
82%
Comercial de Tietê U20 2+ goals
50%
Comercial de Tietê U20 3+ goals
24%
São Bento U20 1+ goals
82%
São Bento U20 2+ goals
51%
São Bento U20 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Comercial de Tietê U20 (draw refunded)
49%
São Bento U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comercial de Tietê U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

São Bento U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comercial de Tietê U20 attack 1.33 + São Bento U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.69

São Bento U20 attack 1.19 + Comercial de Tietê U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Comercial de Tietê U20 scores more
38%
level
23%
São Bento U20 scores more
39%

São Bento U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "São Bento U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
L. de Souza
56'
C. Jefferson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Comercial de Tietê U20 0–1 São Bento U20

São Bento U20 beat Comercial de Tietê U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 14, 2024.

Goals: L. de Souza (47').

The match was played at Estádio José Ferreira Alves in Tietê, São Paulo​.