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Comercial de Tietê U20 vs Portuguesa Santista U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Comercial de Tietê U20
Comercial de Tietê U20
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Portuguesa Santista U20
Portuguesa Santista U20
Leandro 38'
Ramon 82', 56'
K. dos Reis Veloso 61', 44'
Lukinhas 14'
5/16/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio José Ferreira Alves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Comercial de Tietê U2045%
×Draw22%
Portuguesa Santista U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comercial de Tietê U20
1.93
Portuguesa Santista U20
1.63

Comercial de Tietê U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 21 away

creates per match

Comercial de Tietê U20
1.33
Portuguesa Santista U20
1.00

allows per match

Comercial de Tietê U20
2.25
Portuguesa Santista U20
2.52

finishing

Comercial de Tietê U20+0.00on par
Portuguesa Santista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 69No: 3169%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comercial de Tietê U20 ↓

Portuguesa Santista U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Comercial de Tietê U20 or draw
67%
Comercial de Tietê U20 or Portuguesa Santista U20
78%
Draw or Portuguesa Santista U20
55%

Winning margin

Comercial de Tietê U20 wins by 2+
25%
Portuguesa Santista U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Comercial de Tietê U20 1+ goals
85%
Comercial de Tietê U20 2+ goals
57%
Comercial de Tietê U20 3+ goals
30%
Portuguesa Santista U20 1+ goals
80%
Portuguesa Santista U20 2+ goals
48%
Portuguesa Santista U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Comercial de Tietê U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Portuguesa Santista U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comercial de Tietê U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Portuguesa Santista U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comercial de Tietê U20 attack 1.33 + Portuguesa Santista U20 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.93

Portuguesa Santista U20 attack 1.00 + Comercial de Tietê U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Comercial de Tietê U20 scores more
45%
level
22%
Portuguesa Santista U20 scores more
33%

Comercial de Tietê U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Comercial de Tietê U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Lukinhas
38'
Leandro
44'
K. dos Reis Veloso
47'
56'
Ramon
61'
K. dos Reis Veloso
82'
Ramon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Comercial de Tietê U20 1–5 Portuguesa Santista U20

Portuguesa Santista U20 beat Comercial de Tietê U20 5-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 16, 2025.

Goals: Lukinhas (14'), Leandro (38'), K. dos Reis Veloso (44', 61'), Ramon (56', 82').

The match was played at Estádio José Ferreira Alves in Tietê, São Paulo​.