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Comercial de Tietê U20 vs Oeste U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Comercial de Tietê U20
Comercial de Tietê U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Oeste U20
Oeste U20
V. Caio 54'
A. Bamba 45+2'
A. Bernardo 35'
L. Felipe de Abreu Trajano 41'
6/6/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio José Ferreira Alves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Comercial de Tietê U2030%
×Draw22%
Oeste U2047%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comercial de Tietê U20
1.49
Oeste U20
1.90

Oeste U20 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 20 away

creates per match

Comercial de Tietê U20
1.33
Oeste U20
1.55

allows per match

Comercial de Tietê U20
2.25
Oeste U20
1.65

finishing

Comercial de Tietê U20+0.00on par
Oeste U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comercial de Tietê U20 ↓

Oeste U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Comercial de Tietê U20 or draw
53%
Comercial de Tietê U20 or Oeste U20
78%
Draw or Oeste U20
70%

Winning margin

Comercial de Tietê U20 wins by 2+
14%
Oeste U20 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Comercial de Tietê U20 1+ goals
77%
Comercial de Tietê U20 2+ goals
44%
Comercial de Tietê U20 3+ goals
19%
Oeste U20 1+ goals
85%
Oeste U20 2+ goals
56%
Oeste U20 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Comercial de Tietê U20 (draw refunded)
39%
Oeste U20 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comercial de Tietê U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Oeste U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comercial de Tietê U20 attack 1.33 + Oeste U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Oeste U20 attack 1.55 + Comercial de Tietê U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Comercial de Tietê U20 scores more
30%
level
22%
Oeste U20 scores more
47%

Oeste U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oeste U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
35'
A. Bernardo
41'
L. Felipe de Abreu Trajano
45+2'
A. Bamba
54'
V. Caio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Comercial de Tietê U20 3–1 Oeste U20

Comercial de Tietê U20 beat Oeste U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 6, 2025.

Goals: A. Bernardo (35'), L. Felipe de Abreu Trajano (41'), A. Bamba (45+2'), V. Caio (54').

The match was played at Estádio José Ferreira Alves in Tietê, São Paulo​.