Comercial de Tietê U20 4–2 Flamengo SP U20

Comercial de Tietê U20

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Flamengo SP U20

A. Bamba 90+2', 26', 15'

H. Mesquita 44'

F. Wanderson 74'

Rhaul 4'

7/11/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 11Estádio José Ferreira Alves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Comercial de Tietê U2050%

×Draw21%

Flamengo SP U2029%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comercial de Tietê U20Expected goals in this matchFlamengo SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.56

Comercial de Tietê U20

2.10

Flamengo SP U20

1.56

Comercial de Tietê U20 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

1.33

creates per match

0.88

2.25

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Comercial de Tietê U20

1.33

Flamengo SP U20

0.88

allows per match

Comercial de Tietê U20

2.25

Flamengo SP U20

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comercial de Tietê U20+0.00on par

Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comercial de Tietê U20 ↓

Flamengo SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Comercial de Tietê U20 or draw

71%

Comercial de Tietê U20 or Flamengo SP U20

79%

Draw or Flamengo SP U20

50%

Winning margin

Comercial de Tietê U20 wins by 2+

29%

Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Comercial de Tietê U20 1+ goals

88%

Comercial de Tietê U20 2+ goals

62%

Comercial de Tietê U20 3+ goals

35%

Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals

79%

Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals

46%

Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Comercial de Tietê U20 (draw refunded)

63%

Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comercial de Tietê U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Flamengo SP U20 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comercial de Tietê U20 attack 1.33 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.10

Flamengo SP U20 attack 0.88 + Comercial de Tietê U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Comercial de Tietê U20 scores more

50%

level

21%

Flamengo SP U20 scores more

29%

Comercial de Tietê U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Comercial de Tietê U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Rhaul

15'

A. Bamba

26'

A. Bamba

44'

H. Mesquita

74'

F. Wanderson

90+2'

A. Bamba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff