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Colwyn Bay vs Altrincham — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Altrincham
Altrincham
J. Davies 90' (pen)
A. Davies 5'
J. Knowles 58'
A. Forde 11'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Colwyn Bay34%
×Draw23%
Altrincham43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colwyn Bay
1.50
Altrincham
1.70

Altrincham creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Colwyn Bay
2.00
Altrincham
1.40

allows per match

Colwyn Bay
2.00
Altrincham
1.00

finishing

Colwyn Bay+0.00on par
Altrincham+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colwyn Bay ↓

Altrincham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Colwyn Bay or draw
57%
Colwyn Bay or Altrincham
77%
Draw or Altrincham
66%

Winning margin

Colwyn Bay wins by 2+
16%
Altrincham wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Colwyn Bay 1+ goals
78%
Colwyn Bay 2+ goals
44%
Colwyn Bay 3+ goals
19%
Altrincham 1+ goals
82%
Altrincham 2+ goals
51%
Altrincham 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Colwyn Bay (draw refunded)
44%
Altrincham (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colwyn Bay at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Altrincham away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colwyn Bay attack 2.00 + Altrincham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Altrincham attack 1.40 + Colwyn Bay defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colwyn Bay scores more
34%
level
23%
Altrincham scores more
43%

Altrincham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Altrincham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
A. Davies
11'
A. Forde
58'
J. Knowles
90'
J. DaviesPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colwyn Bay vs Altrincham

Colwyn Bay and Altrincham drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: A. Davies (5'), A. Forde (11'), J. Knowles (58'), J. Davies (90' pen).