Colunga 3–2 Tuilla: Result & Stats

Colunga

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Tuilla

3/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Colunga39%

×Draw27%

Tuilla34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColungaExpected goals in this matchTuilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.22

Colunga

1.32

Tuilla

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 110 away

1.19

creates per match

1.17

1.27

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Colunga

1.19

Tuilla

1.17

allows per match

Colunga

1.27

Tuilla

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par

Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Tuilla →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Colunga or draw

66%

Colunga or Tuilla

73%

Draw or Tuilla

61%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+

18%

Tuilla wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals

73%

Colunga 2+ goals

38%

Colunga 3+ goals

15%

Tuilla 1+ goals

70%

Tuilla 2+ goals

34%

Tuilla 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)

53%

Tuilla (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tuilla attack 1.17 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colunga scores more

39%

level

27%

Tuilla scores more

34%

Colunga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff