Colunga 2–2 Sporting Gijón II: Result & Stats

Colunga

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Gijón II

Robert Martínez 89'

Javier Meana 66'

A. Coundoul 81'

E. Medrano 34'

4/20/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Colunga27%

×Draw28%

Sporting Gijón II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColungaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.34

Colunga

0.98

Sporting Gijón II

1.34

Sporting Gijón II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 86 away

1.19

creates per match

1.41

1.27

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Colunga

1.19

Sporting Gijón II

1.41

allows per match

Colunga

1.27

Sporting Gijón II

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Sporting Gijón II →

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Colunga or draw

55%

Colunga or Sporting Gijón II

72%

Draw or Sporting Gijón II

73%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+

10%

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals

62%

Colunga 2+ goals

26%

Colunga 3+ goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

74%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

39%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)

38%

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.98

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colunga scores more

27%

level

28%

Sporting Gijón II scores more

45%

Sporting Gijón II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

E. Medrano

56'

57'

58'

José Naya← Kelvin Gbormittah

60'

Marquitos← E. Medrano

66'

Javier Meana

75'

80'

81'

A. Coundoul

84'

Álvaro García← Daniel Corgo

84'

K. Picón← Manu Rodríguez

87'

Carlos Barcia← Abel Fernández

89'

Robert Martínez

90+1'

Marcos Fernández← Enol Prendes

90+1'

Yosmel Zayas← Aarón Quintana

Colunga

Sporting

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

58'▲José Naya←▼Kelvin Gbormittah

84'▲Álvaro García←▼Daniel Corgo

87'▲Carlos Barcia←▼Abel Fernández

Colunga substitutes

NayaGarcíaBarcia

Manager: Samuel Baños

60'▲Marquitos←▼E. Medrano

84'▲K. Picón←▼Manu Rodríguez

90+1'▲Marcos Fernández←▼Enol Prendes

90+1'▲Yosmel Zayas←▼Aarón Quintana

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

MarquitosPicónFernándezZayas

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Colunga 2–2 Sporting Gijón II

Colunga and Sporting Gijón II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 20, 2025.

Goals: E. Medrano (34'), Javier Meana (66'), A. Coundoul (81'), Robert Martínez (89').

The match was played at Estadio Santianes in Colunga.

Colunga vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Colunga 2–2 Sporting Gijón II