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Colunga vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Colunga
Colunga
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
San Martín
San Martín
N. Fernandez 39'
A. Ferreres 13'
J. Revuelta 90'
M. Biforcos 80'
J. Angulo 27' (OG)
4/19/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Colunga41%
×Draw26%
San Martín33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colunga
1.37
San Martín
1.20

Colunga creates 14% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 78 away

creates per match

Colunga
1.19
San Martín
1.12

allows per match

Colunga
1.27
San Martín
1.55

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par
San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

San Martín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colunga or draw
67%
Colunga or San Martín
74%
Draw or San Martín
59%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+
19%
San Martín wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals
75%
Colunga 2+ goals
40%
Colunga 3+ goals
16%
San Martín 1+ goals
70%
San Martín 2+ goals
34%
San Martín 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)
55%
San Martín (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

San Martín attack 1.12 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colunga scores more
41%
level
26%
San Martín scores more
33%

Colunga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. Ferreres
27'
J. AnguloOwn goal
39'
N. Fernandez
80'
M. Biforcos
90'
J. Revuelta
Colunga
San
Pablo Pantiga
Manager: Pablo Pantiga
Jubel Sánchez
Manager: Jubel Sánchez

Colunga 2 – 3 San Martín

San Martín beat Colunga 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 19, 2026.

Goals: A. Ferreres (13'), J. Angulo (27' o.g.), N. Fernandez (39'), M. Biforcos (80'), J. Revuelta (90').

The match was played at Estadio Santianes in Colunga.