Colunga 4–2 Roces: Result & Stats

Colunga

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Roces

Robert Martínez 79'

Mauro Suárez 33' (OG)

David Ferrari 27'

Javier Meana 18'

Adrián Acerete 80', 47'

2/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Colunga51%

×Draw25%

Roces24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColungaExpected goals in this matchRoces

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.98

Colunga

1.56

Roces

0.98

Colunga creates 59% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 36 away

1.19

creates per match

0.69

1.27

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Colunga

1.19

Roces

0.69

allows per match

Colunga

1.27

Roces

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par

Roces+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Roces →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Colunga or draw

76%

Colunga or Roces

75%

Draw or Roces

49%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+

26%

Roces wins by 2+

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals

79%

Colunga 2+ goals

46%

Colunga 3+ goals

21%

Roces 1+ goals

62%

Roces 2+ goals

26%

Roces 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)

68%

Roces (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Roces away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Roces defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.56

Roces attack 0.69 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Colunga scores more

51%

level

25%

Roces scores more

24%

Colunga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Javier Meana

27'

David Ferrari

33'

Mauro SuárezOwn goal

34'

Rodrigo Gutiérrez← Keko Roza

46'

Adrián Acerete← Dani Rodriguez

46'

Santiago Floer← Diego Espina

47'

Adrián Acerete

55'

Kelvin Gbormittah← Javier Meana

64'

Abraham Ferreres← Mauro Suárez

64'

Diego Menéndez← Antonio Ferrera

72'

David Moreno← Carlos Barcia

79'

Robert Martínez

80'

Adrián Acerete

Colunga

Roces

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

34'▲Rodrigo Gutiérrez←▼Keko Roza

55'▲Kelvin Gbormittah←▼Javier Meana

72'▲David Moreno←▼Carlos Barcia

Colunga substitutes

GutiérrezGbormittahMoreno

Manager: Efrén Díaz

46'▲Adrián Acerete←▼Dani Rodriguez

46'▲Santiago Floer←▼Diego Espina

64'▲Abraham Ferreres←▼Mauro Suárez

64'▲Diego Menéndez←▼Antonio Ferrera

Roces substitutes

AcereteFloerFerreresMenéndez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Colunga 4–2 Roces

Colunga beat Roces 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 16, 2025.

Goals: Javier Meana (18'), David Ferrari (27'), Mauro Suárez (33' o.g.), Adrián Acerete (47', 80'), Robert Martínez (79').

The match was played at Estadio Santianes in Colunga.

Colunga vs Roces — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Colunga 4–2 Roces