Colunga 1–0 Real Titánico: Result & Stats

Colunga

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Titánico

Pablo Castiello 55' (OG)

1/26/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Colunga47%

×Draw26%

Real Titánico27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColungaExpected goals in this matchReal Titánico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.09

Colunga

1.52

Real Titánico

1.09

Colunga creates 39% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 97 away

1.19

creates per match

0.92

1.27

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Colunga

1.19

Real Titánico

0.92

allows per match

Colunga

1.27

Real Titánico

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par

Real Titánico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Real Titánico →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Colunga or draw

73%

Colunga or Real Titánico

74%

Draw or Real Titánico

53%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+

24%

Real Titánico wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals

78%

Colunga 2+ goals

45%

Colunga 3+ goals

20%

Real Titánico 1+ goals

66%

Real Titánico 2+ goals

30%

Real Titánico 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)

63%

Real Titánico (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Real Titánico away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.84 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Real Titánico defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real Titánico attack 0.92 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Colunga scores more

47%

level

26%

Real Titánico scores more

27%

Colunga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Pablo CastielloOwn goal

71'

M. Malasiewicz← Luismi

71'

Diego Sánchez← Javi Perera

73'

Kelvin Gbormittah← Álvaro García

73'

David Ferrari← José Naya

79'

Joan López← Jorge Barbon

79'

Samu Armayor← Borja González

Colunga

Real

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

73'▲Kelvin Gbormittah←▼Álvaro García

73'▲David Ferrari←▼José Naya

Colunga substitutes

GbormittahFerrari

Manager: Daniel Castelao

71'▲M. Malasiewicz←▼Luismi

71'▲Diego Sánchez←▼Javi Perera

79'▲Joan López←▼Jorge Barbon

79'▲Samu Armayor←▼Borja González

Real Titánico substitutes

MalasiewiczSánchezLópezArmayor

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Colunga 1–0 Real Titánico

Colunga beat Real Titánico 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 26, 2025.

Goals: Pablo Castiello (55' o.g.).

The match was played at Estadio Santianes in Colunga.

Colunga vs Real Titánico — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Colunga 1–0 Real Titánico