Colunga 0–2 Real Oviedo II: Result & Stats

Colunga

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Oviedo II

Joaquín Delgado 90+3'

Castri 81'

2/2/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Colunga23%

×Draw25%

Real Oviedo II52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColungaExpected goals in this matchReal Oviedo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.58

Colunga

0.97

Real Oviedo II

1.58

Real Oviedo II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 36 away

1.19

creates per match

1.89

1.27

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Colunga

1.19

Real Oviedo II

1.89

allows per match

Colunga

1.27

Real Oviedo II

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Real Oviedo II →

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Colunga or draw

48%

Colunga or Real Oviedo II

75%

Draw or Real Oviedo II

77%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals

62%

Colunga 2+ goals

25%

Colunga 3+ goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

79%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

47%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)

31%

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

Real Oviedo II attack 1.89 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Colunga scores more

23%

level

25%

Real Oviedo II scores more

52%

Real Oviedo II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Castri← Diego Menéndez

60'

David Ferrari← José Naya

64'

Óscar Maza← Rubén Valdera

64'

Joaquín Delgado← Marcos Lopes

78'

Pelayo García← L. Gueye

81'

Castri

90'

Abel Fernández← David Moreno

90+2'

Pablo Agudín← Santi Miguélez

90+3'

Joaquín Delgado

Colunga

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

60'▲David Ferrari←▼José Naya

90'▲Abel Fernández←▼David Moreno

Colunga substitutes

FerrariFernández

Manager: Roberto Aguirre

46'▲Castri←▼Diego Menéndez

64'▲Óscar Maza←▼Rubén Valdera

64'▲Joaquín Delgado←▼Marcos Lopes

78'▲Pelayo García←▼L. Gueye

90+2'▲Pablo Agudín←▼Santi Miguélez

Real Oviedo II substitutes

CastriMazaDelgadoGarcíaAgudín