Colunga 1–4 Llanes: Result & Stats

Colunga

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Llanes

Unknown 7'

Unknown 83', 80', 78', 25'

11/2/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Colunga37%

×Draw27%

Llanes36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColungaExpected goals in this matchLlanes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.23

Colunga

1.27

Llanes

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 94 away

1.19

creates per match

1.19

1.27

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Colunga

1.19

Llanes

1.19

allows per match

Colunga

1.27

Llanes

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par

Llanes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Llanes →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Colunga or draw

64%

Colunga or Llanes

73%

Draw or Llanes

63%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+

16%

Llanes wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals

72%

Colunga 2+ goals

36%

Colunga 3+ goals

14%

Llanes 1+ goals

71%

Llanes 2+ goals

35%

Llanes 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)

51%

Llanes (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Llanes away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.36 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Llanes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Llanes attack 1.19 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Colunga scores more

37%

level

27%

Llanes scores more

36%

Colunga at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

78'

80'

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff