Colunga 0–2 Lealtad: Result & Stats

Colunga

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lealtad

C. Mboup 53'

A. Porto 9'

11/1/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Colunga28%

×Draw28%

Lealtad45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColungaExpected goals in this matchLealtad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.34

Colunga

0.99

Lealtad

1.34

Lealtad creates 35% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 82 away

1.19

creates per match

1.41

1.27

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Colunga

1.19

Lealtad

1.41

allows per match

Colunga

1.27

Lealtad

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par

Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Lealtad →

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Colunga or draw

55%

Colunga or Lealtad

72%

Draw or Lealtad

72%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+

10%

Lealtad wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals

63%

Colunga 2+ goals

26%

Colunga 3+ goals

Lealtad 1+ goals

74%

Lealtad 2+ goals

39%

Lealtad 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)

38%

Lealtad (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Lealtad away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Lealtad defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.99

Lealtad attack 1.41 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colunga scores more

28%

level

28%

Lealtad scores more

45%

Lealtad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Porto

53'

C. Mboup

57'

Diego Iza← David Moreno

63'

Iván Salas← Daniel Corgo

67'

Pedro Bayón← Javier Meana

67'

Marcos Blanco← J. Layman

67'

Ivanchu← C. Mboup

86'

Adrián Díaz← Diego Montequín

87'

Cueli← Diego Nuño

Colunga

Lealtad

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

57'▲Diego Iza←▼David Moreno

63'▲Iván Salas←▼Daniel Corgo

87'▲Cueli←▼Diego Nuño

Colunga substitutes

IzaSalasCueli

Manager: Julio Arniella

67'▲Pedro Bayón←▼Javier Meana

67'▲Marcos Blanco←▼J. Layman

67'▲Ivanchu←▼C. Mboup

86'▲Adrián Díaz←▼Diego Montequín

Lealtad substitutes

BayónBlancoIvanchuDíaz

Match Recap: Colunga vs Lealtad

Lealtad beat Colunga 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 1, 2023.

Goals: A. Porto (9'), C. Mboup (53').

The match was played at Estadio Santianes in Colunga.

Colunga vs Lealtad — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Colunga vs Lealtad