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Colunga vs Gijón Industrial — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Colunga
Colunga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
11/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Colunga45%
×Draw26%
Gijón Industrial29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colunga
1.44
Gijón Industrial
1.11

Colunga creates 30% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 80 away

creates per match

Colunga
1.19
Gijón Industrial
0.95

allows per match

Colunga
1.27
Gijón Industrial
1.69

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par
Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Gijón Industrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colunga or draw
71%
Colunga or Gijón Industrial
74%
Draw or Gijón Industrial
55%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+
22%
Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals
76%
Colunga 2+ goals
42%
Colunga 3+ goals
18%
Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
67%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
30%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)
60%
Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Gijón Industrial away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.69 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gijón Industrial attack 0.95 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colunga scores more
45%
level
26%
Gijón Industrial scores more
29%

Colunga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Colunga 1–0 Gijón Industrial

Colunga beat Gijón Industrial 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Santianes in Colunga.