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Colunga vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Colunga
Colunga
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
6/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Colunga47%
×Draw26%
Avilés Stadium27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colunga
1.47
Avilés Stadium
1.06

Colunga creates 39% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 80 away

creates per match

Colunga
1.19
Avilés Stadium
0.85

allows per match

Colunga
1.27
Avilés Stadium
1.75

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par
Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Avilés Stadium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colunga or draw
73%
Colunga or Avilés Stadium
74%
Draw or Avilés Stadium
53%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+
23%
Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals
77%
Colunga 2+ goals
43%
Colunga 3+ goals
18%
Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
65%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
29%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)
63%
Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.47

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Colunga scores more
47%
level
26%
Avilés Stadium scores more
27%

Colunga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colunga vs Avilés Stadium

Avilés Stadium beat Colunga 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Santianes in Colunga.