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Avilés Stadium vs Colunga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colunga
Colunga
11/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Campo Muro de Zaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Avilés Stadium33%
×Draw29%
Colunga37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avilés Stadium
1.04
Colunga
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 113 away

creates per match

Avilés Stadium
0.74
Colunga
1.04

allows per match

Avilés Stadium
1.20
Colunga
1.34

finishing

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par
Colunga+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avilés Stadium ↓

Colunga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Avilés Stadium or draw
63%
Avilés Stadium or Colunga
71%
Draw or Colunga
67%

Winning margin

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
13%
Colunga wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
65%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
28%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
9%
Colunga 1+ goals
67%
Colunga 2+ goals
31%
Colunga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
47%
Colunga (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avilés Stadium at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Colunga away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avilés Stadium attack 0.74 + Colunga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.04

Colunga attack 1.04 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Avilés Stadium scores more
33%
level
29%
Colunga scores more
37%

Colunga at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Avilés
Colunga
Fernando Muñoz
Manager: Fernando Muñoz
Pablo Pantiga
Manager: Pablo Pantiga

Match Recap: Avilés Stadium vs Colunga

Avilés Stadium and Colunga drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Muro de Zaro in Avilés.