Columbus Crew 4–0 Real Salt Lake: Result & Stats

Columbus Crew

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real Salt Lake

4/1/2023

Major League Soccer · Round 9Lower.com Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Columbus Crew52%

×Draw24%

Real Salt Lake25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Columbus CrewExpected goals in this matchReal Salt Lake

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.13

Columbus Crew

1.74

Real Salt Lake

1.13

Columbus Crew creates 54% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.50

creates per match

1.20

1.05

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Columbus Crew

1.50

Real Salt Lake

1.20

allows per match

Columbus Crew

1.05

Real Salt Lake

1.98

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Columbus Crew+0.25scores more

Real Salt Lake-0.01on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew ↓

Real Salt Lake →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Columbus Crew or draw

75%

Columbus Crew or Real Salt Lake

76%

Draw or Real Salt Lake

48%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

28%

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

82%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

52%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

25%

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

68%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

31%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

68%

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 16 matches

Real Salt Lake away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.98 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew attack 1.50 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.74

Real Salt Lake attack 1.20 + Columbus Crew defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Columbus Crew scores more

52%

level

24%

Real Salt Lake scores more

25%

Columbus Crew at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff