Columbus Crew 3–0 New York Red Bulls

Columbus Crew

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

New York Red Bulls

3/16/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 6Lower.com Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Columbus Crew46%

×Draw25%

New York Red Bulls29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Columbus CrewExpected goals in this matchNew York Red Bulls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.17

Columbus Crew

1.56

New York Red Bulls

1.17

Columbus Crew creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

1.50

creates per match

1.28

1.05

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Columbus Crew

1.50

New York Red Bulls

1.28

allows per match

Columbus Crew

1.05

New York Red Bulls

1.62

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Columbus Crew+0.25scores more

New York Red Bulls-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew ↓

New York Red Bulls →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Columbus Crew or draw

71%

Columbus Crew or New York Red Bulls

75%

Draw or New York Red Bulls

54%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

24%

New York Red Bulls wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

79%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

46%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

21%

New York Red Bulls 1+ goals

69%

New York Red Bulls 2+ goals

33%

New York Red Bulls 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

62%

New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 16 matches

New York Red Bulls away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew attack 1.50 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

New York Red Bulls attack 1.28 + Columbus Crew defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Columbus Crew scores more

46%

level

25%

New York Red Bulls scores more

29%

Columbus Crew at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff