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Columbus Crew II vs New York RB II — MLS Next Pro 2026

Columbus Crew II
Columbus Crew II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
New York RB II
New York RB II
7/31/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 27Historic Crew Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Columbus Crew II50%
×Draw21%
New York RB II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Columbus Crew II
2.19
New York RB II
1.67

Columbus Crew II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 40 away

creates per match

Columbus Crew II
2.42
New York RB II
1.93

allows per match

Columbus Crew II
1.40
New York RB II
1.95

finishing

Columbus Crew II+0.00on par
New York RB II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew II ↓

New York RB II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Columbus Crew II or draw
70%
Columbus Crew II or New York RB II
79%
Draw or New York RB II
50%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew II wins by 2+
29%
New York RB II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Columbus Crew II 1+ goals
89%
Columbus Crew II 2+ goals
64%
Columbus Crew II 3+ goals
37%
New York RB II 1+ goals
81%
New York RB II 2+ goals
50%
New York RB II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew II (draw refunded)
62%
New York RB II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

New York RB II away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew II attack 2.42 + New York RB II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.19

New York RB II attack 1.93 + Columbus Crew II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Columbus Crew II scores more
50%
level
21%
New York RB II scores more
30%

Columbus Crew II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Columbus Crew II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Columbus Crew II vs New York RB II

New York RB II beat Columbus Crew II 2-1 in MLS Next Pro on July 31, 2025.

The match was played at Historic Crew Stadium.