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Colorado Switchbacks II vs Park City Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Colorado Switchbacks II
Colorado Switchbacks II
FT
3 – 0
Park City Red Wolves
Park City Red Wolves
7/13/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 16Weidner Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Colorado Switchbacks II56%
×Draw20%
Park City Red Wolves24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Switchbacks II
2.29
Park City Red Wolves
1.43

Colorado Switchbacks II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

creates per match

Colorado Switchbacks II
3.00
Park City Red Wolves
1.86

allows per match

Colorado Switchbacks II
1.00
Park City Red Wolves
1.59

finishing

Colorado Switchbacks II+0.00on par
Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Switchbacks II ↓

Park City Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Colorado Switchbacks II or draw
76%
Colorado Switchbacks II or Park City Red Wolves
80%
Draw or Park City Red Wolves
44%

Winning margin

Colorado Switchbacks II wins by 2+
35%
Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colorado Switchbacks II 1+ goals
90%
Colorado Switchbacks II 2+ goals
66%
Colorado Switchbacks II 3+ goals
40%
Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals
76%
Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals
42%
Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Colorado Switchbacks II (draw refunded)
71%
Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Switchbacks II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Park City Red Wolves away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Switchbacks II attack 3.00 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.29

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.86 + Colorado Switchbacks II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Colorado Switchbacks II scores more
56%
level
20%
Park City Red Wolves scores more
24%

Colorado Switchbacks II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Colorado Switchbacks II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Colorado Switchbacks II 3–0 Park City Red Wolves

Colorado Switchbacks II beat Park City Red Wolves 3-0 in USL League Two on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Weidner Field.