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Colorado Switchbacks II vs Ogden City — USL League Two 2018

Colorado Switchbacks II
Colorado Switchbacks II
FT
0 – 0
Ogden City
Ogden City
6/21/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 1Weidner Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Colorado Switchbacks II61%
×Draw19%
Ogden City20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Switchbacks II
2.36
Ogden City
1.30

Colorado Switchbacks II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Colorado Switchbacks II
3.00
Ogden City
1.60

allows per match

Colorado Switchbacks II
1.00
Ogden City
1.72

finishing

Colorado Switchbacks II+0.00on par
Ogden City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Switchbacks II ↓

Ogden City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Colorado Switchbacks II or draw
80%
Colorado Switchbacks II or Ogden City
81%
Draw or Ogden City
39%

Winning margin

Colorado Switchbacks II wins by 2+
39%
Ogden City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Colorado Switchbacks II 1+ goals
90%
Colorado Switchbacks II 2+ goals
68%
Colorado Switchbacks II 3+ goals
41%
Ogden City 1+ goals
73%
Ogden City 2+ goals
37%
Ogden City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Colorado Switchbacks II (draw refunded)
75%
Ogden City (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Switchbacks II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Ogden City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Switchbacks II attack 3.00 + Ogden City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.36

Ogden City attack 1.60 + Colorado Switchbacks II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Colorado Switchbacks II scores more
61%
level
19%
Ogden City scores more
20%

Colorado Switchbacks II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Colorado Switchbacks II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Colorado Switchbacks II 0–0 Ogden City

Colorado Switchbacks II and Ogden City drew 0-0 in USL League Two on June 21, 2019.

The match was played at Weidner Field.