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Colorado Switchbacks II vs Albuquerque Sol — USL League Two 2018

Colorado Switchbacks II
Colorado Switchbacks II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Albuquerque Sol
Albuquerque Sol
7/7/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 11Weidner Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Colorado Switchbacks II74%
×Draw15%
Albuquerque Sol10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Switchbacks II
2.63
Albuquerque Sol
0.88

Colorado Switchbacks II creates 199% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Colorado Switchbacks II
3.00
Albuquerque Sol
0.75

allows per match

Colorado Switchbacks II
1.00
Albuquerque Sol
2.25

finishing

Colorado Switchbacks II+0.00on par
Albuquerque Sol+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Switchbacks II ↓

Albuquerque Sol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Colorado Switchbacks II or draw
90%
Colorado Switchbacks II or Albuquerque Sol
85%
Draw or Albuquerque Sol
26%

Winning margin

Colorado Switchbacks II wins by 2+
53%
Albuquerque Sol wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Colorado Switchbacks II 1+ goals
93%
Colorado Switchbacks II 2+ goals
73%
Colorado Switchbacks II 3+ goals
48%
Albuquerque Sol 1+ goals
59%
Albuquerque Sol 2+ goals
22%
Albuquerque Sol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Colorado Switchbacks II (draw refunded)
88%
Albuquerque Sol (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Switchbacks II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Albuquerque Sol away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Switchbacks II attack 3.00 + Albuquerque Sol defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Albuquerque Sol attack 0.75 + Colorado Switchbacks II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Colorado Switchbacks II scores more
74%
level
15%
Albuquerque Sol scores more
10%

Colorado Switchbacks II at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Colorado Switchbacks II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colorado Switchbacks II 4 – 1 Albuquerque Sol

Colorado Switchbacks II beat Albuquerque Sol 4-1 in USL League Two on July 7, 2019.

The match was played at Weidner Field.