Colorado Springs 4–2 Ventura County: Result & Stats

Colorado Springs

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Ventura County

7/16/2022

USL Championship · Round 26Weidner Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Colorado Springs50%

×Draw23%

Ventura County27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado SpringsExpected goals in this matchVentura County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.24

Colorado Springs

1.78

Ventura County

1.24

Colorado Springs creates 44% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 77 away

1.52

creates per match

1.39

1.09

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Colorado Springs

1.52

Ventura County

1.39

allows per match

Colorado Springs

1.09

Ventura County

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par

Ventura County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Ventura County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw

73%

Colorado Springs or Ventura County

77%

Draw or Ventura County

50%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+

27%

Ventura County wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals

83%

Colorado Springs 2+ goals

53%

Colorado Springs 3+ goals

26%

Ventura County 1+ goals

71%

Ventura County 2+ goals

35%

Ventura County 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)

65%

Ventura County (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

Ventura County away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.04 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + Ventura County defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ventura County attack 1.39 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Colorado Springs scores more

50%

level

23%

Ventura County scores more

27%

Colorado Springs at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff