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Colorado Springs vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
6/10/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 22Weidner Field (Colorado Springs)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Colorado Springs54%
×Draw23%
Sporting KC II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Springs
1.85
Sporting KC II
1.14

Colorado Springs creates 62% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 66 away

creates per match

Colorado Springs
1.52
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Colorado Springs
1.09
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw
77%
Colorado Springs or Sporting KC II
77%
Draw or Sporting KC II
46%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+
31%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals
84%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
55%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
28%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
68%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
32%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
70%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Colorado Springs scores more
54%
level
23%
Sporting KC II scores more
23%

Colorado Springs at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Colorado Springs 0–1 Sporting KC II

Sporting KC II beat Colorado Springs 1-0 in USL Championship on June 10, 2018.

The match was played at Weidner Field (Colorado Springs).