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Colorado Springs vs Seattle Sounders II — USL Championship 2018

Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Seattle Sounders II
Seattle Sounders II
4/22/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 10Weidner Field (Colorado Springs)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Colorado Springs61%
×Draw21%
Seattle Sounders II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Springs
1.98
Seattle Sounders II
0.96

Colorado Springs creates 106% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 18 away

creates per match

Colorado Springs
1.52
Seattle Sounders II
0.83

allows per match

Colorado Springs
1.09
Seattle Sounders II
2.44

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par
Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Seattle Sounders II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw
82%
Colorado Springs or Seattle Sounders II
79%
Draw or Seattle Sounders II
39%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+
37%
Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals
86%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
59%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
31%
Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals
62%
Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals
25%
Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
77%
Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

Seattle Sounders II away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + Seattle Sounders II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.98

Seattle Sounders II attack 0.83 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Colorado Springs scores more
61%
level
21%
Seattle Sounders II scores more
18%

Colorado Springs at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colorado Springs 0 – 0 Seattle Sounders II

Colorado Springs and Seattle Sounders II drew 0-0 in USL Championship on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Weidner Field (Colorado Springs).